Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 18 | 8.7 | 11.2% | 79 | 0.69% |
| 10-19 | 20 | 9.0 | 12.5% | 88 | 0.65% |
| 20-29 | 25 | 14.1 | 20.2% | 142 | 0.68% |
| 30-39 | 23 | 13.0 | 17.4% | 122 | 0.9% |
| 40-49 | 17 | 9.3 | 14.4% | 101 | 0.97% |
| 50-59 | 14 | 7.3 | 10.1% | 71 | 0.57% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 6.1 | 7.5% | 53 | 0.46% |
| 70+ | 6 | 4.3 | 6.7% | 47 | 0.45% |
| All ages | 131 | 71.9 | 100% | 703 | 0.67% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24 | 18259 | 64835 | 569 | 146 | 813 |
| Nov 25 | 18259 | 64870 | 570 | 146 | 738 |
| Nov 26 | 18353 | 64940 | 573 | 146 | 741 |
| Nov 27 | 18425 | 64994 | 573 | 146 | 721 |
| Nov 28 | 18425 | 65025 | 573 | 146 | 623 |
| Nov 29 | 18530 | 65097 | 576 | 152 | 650 |
| Nov 30 | 18661 | 65169 | 578 | 152 | 703 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24 | 12172 | 37807 | 510 | 127 | 507 |
| Nov 25 | 12172 | 37831 | 510 | 127 | 469 |
| Nov 26 | 12170 | 37867 | 510 | 127 | 420 |
| Nov 27 | 12177 | 37892 | 510 | 127 | 370 |
| Nov 28 | 12177 | 37908 | 510 | 128 | 323 |
| Nov 29 | 12358 | 37946 | 514 | 128 | 431 |
| Nov 30 | 12409 | 37993 | 518 | 129 | 442 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 5.0 | 13.9% | 61 | 0.79% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 4.7 | 10.3% | 45 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 4.9 | 11.8% | 52 | 0.73% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 7.4 | 19.4% | 85 | 1.01% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 6.3 | 13.7% | 60 | 0.77% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 5.6 | 13.7% | 60 | 0.62% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4.4 | 9.3% | 41 | 0.49% |
| 70+ | 4 | 2.9 | 8% | 35 | 0.49% |
| All ages | 51 | 41.1 | 100% | 439 | 0.68% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24 | 9453 | 25143 | 424 | 101 | 405 |
| Nov 25 | 9465 | 25167 | 425 | 101 | 376 |
| Nov 26 | 9510 | 25186 | 425 | 101 | 389 |
| Nov 27 | 9522 | 25199 | 427 | 101 | 365 |
| Nov 28 | 9547 | 25216 | 427 | 101 | 325 |
| Nov 29 | 9572 | 25238 | 427 | 101 | 315 |
| Nov 30 | 9640 | 25282 | 429 | 101 | 354 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.7 | 11.3% | 40 | 0.74% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 3.4 | 11% | 39 | 0.72% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 4.1 | 12.7% | 45 | 0.99% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 6.3 | 17.5% | 62 | 1.14% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 3.6 | 12.1% | 43 | 0.86% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 5.0 | 15.5% | 55 | 0.81% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 3.7 | 11.9% | 42 | 0.66% |
| 70+ | 5 | 1.9 | 7.9% | 28 | 0.44% |
| All ages | 68 | 32.7 | 100% | 354 | 0.78% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24 | 19250 | 75320 | 723 | 123 | 646 |
| Nov 25 | 19248 | 75415 | 723 | 123 | 574 |
| Nov 26 | 19382 | 75549 | 741 | 124 | 637 |
| Nov 27 | 19422 | 75608 | 742 | 124 | 566 |
| Nov 28 | 19478 | 75644 | 742 | 124 | 552 |
| Nov 29 | 19597 | 75827 | 743 | 125 | 580 |
| Nov 30 | 19731 | 75981 | 748 | 125 | 692 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 22 | 12.1 | 16.9% | 125 | 1.06% |
| 10-19 | 20 | 9.0 | 11.7% | 87 | 0.53% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 12.1 | 15.2% | 113 | 0.53% |
| 30-39 | 25 | 15.6 | 20% | 148 | 1.09% |
| 40-49 | 22 | 9.1 | 13% | 96 | 0.71% |
| 50-59 | 18 | 8.9 | 11.1% | 82 | 0.58% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 6.3 | 7.6% | 56 | 0.39% |
| 70+ | 2 | 3.0 | 4.6% | 34 | 0.26% |
| All ages | 134 | 76.1 | 100% | 741 | 0.63% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24 | 61971 | 438189 | 2038 | 386 | 1932 |
| Nov 25 | 61972 | 438593 | 2040 | 386 | 1638 |
| Nov 26 | 62074 | 438887 | 2045 | 386 | 1571 |
| Nov 27 | 62117 | 439063 | 2045 | 386 | 1420 |
| Nov 28 | 62162 | 439385 | 2045 | 386 | 1299 |
| Nov 29 | 62515 | 439862 | 2048 | 387 | 1425 |
| Nov 30 | 62837 | 440504 | 2058 | 387 | 1682 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 21 | 28.0 | 18.7% | 314 | 0.52% |
| 10-19 | 37 | 18.3 | 13.2% | 222 | 0.31% |
| 20-29 | 81 | 28.0 | 16.7% | 281 | 0.27% |
| 30-39 | 57 | 28.0 | 18.5% | 312 | 0.41% |
| 40-49 | 48 | 20.0 | 12.9% | 217 | 0.33% |
| 50-59 | 39 | 15.1 | 9.8% | 165 | 0.25% |
| 60-69 | 26 | 9.7 | 6.2% | 105 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 13 | 6.0 | 3.9% | 65 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 322 | 153.3 | 100% | 1682 | 0.31% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24 | 967530 | 3666572 | 48497 | 9940 | 39465 |
| Nov 25 | 968290 | 3670079 | 48550 | 9944 | 35417 |
| Nov 26 | 970937 | 3673686 | 48802 | 9953 | 33795 |
| Nov 27 | 972837 | 3676250 | 48821 | 9954 | 31307 |
| Nov 28 | 974871 | 3678433 | 48830 | 9955 | 29170 |
| Nov 29 | 980775 | 3683324 | 49045 | 10005 | 30751 |
| Nov 30 | 986229 | 3688705 | 49299 | 10048 | 34571 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 643 | 417.9 | 12.9% | 4452 | 0.7% |
| 10-19 | 752 | 425.0 | 13.3% | 4583 | 0.61% |
| 20-29 | 739 | 429.6 | 13% | 4510 | 0.6% |
| 30-39 | 990 | 572.0 | 17.2% | 5950 | 0.79% |
| 40-49 | 806 | 462.4 | 13.9% | 4798 | 0.69% |
| 50-59 | 677 | 417.7 | 12.6% | 4373 | 0.54% |
| 60-69 | 496 | 320.3 | 9.7% | 3343 | 0.44% |
| 70+ | 351 | 240.0 | 7.4% | 2545 | 0.4% |
| All ages | 5454 | 3285.7 | 100% | 34571 | 0.59% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-12-23 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 9910"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges